GameDay 2

Well GameDay 1 didn't go as smoothly as planned with the Rockets blowing a 12 point lead with just over a minute left. Anyways the Warriors pulled through in the first quarter, barely, but just as in the playoffs the Jazz revealed their flaws and exploited them. So my record this year is now (1-1). Onto gameday 2.

GameDay 2
Pick 1

Game: Dallas @ Cleveland

Pick: Dallas -4.5

Reason: Dallas was the best team in the league last year and after an unexpected first round exit to GSW, they will want to start the season on the right foot. Cleveland meanwhile continues to puzzle just about everybody on how the hell they made it all the way to the Finals. Dallas is by far a superior team and will show that on Wednesday night against a Cleveland team that looked very poor in the preseason.

Pick 2

Game: San Antonio @ Memphis

Pick: Memphis +7.5

Reason: San Antonio just had their championship ceremony and their official match of the season. So just 24 hours later they will enter their first back to back games, which is always difficult at the beginning of the season. Memphis on the hand have been resting since...well since 20 games into last year, and will be eager to impress in their season opener at home. They will definitely not get trashed, and might even make it a tight game down the stretch.

Pick 3

Game: Washington @ Indiana

Pick: Washington +1.5

Reason: The simple reason is that Washington is a much better team than Indiana. However, there is also the fact that Gilbert Arenas no doubt wants to make a splashy entrance back into the league, and the original big three will be too much for the mediocre Pacers to handle.


Non-Official Picks for all games (1-2 this season so far)

The three picks that I have mentioned above.
-New Jersey -2.5 vs Chicago
-Milwaukee +7.5 vs Orlando
-Toronto -7.5 vs Philadelphia
-Sacramento +10.5 vs New Orleans
-Denver -10.5 vs Seattle

Game Day 1

So the NBA season is starting tonight, and that of course means that my betting mission will also finally see the light of day. I’ve thought about how I can present the information and I have decided that the percentage of correct ‘guesses’ on handicap bets (50/50 bets) are the best way to measure my skill.

For those not familiar with betting, here’s a quick rundown. Vegas decides to put a ‘line’ somewhere giving a team a starting ‘handicap’ of a couple of points. Essentially this is what they think the game will result in. So for tonight’s game between San Antonio and Portland, they have chosen to give Portland a 12.5 point starting lead (expressed as Portland +12.5). Otherwise you can choose to side with San Antonio -12.5 which would mean San Antonio would have to win by 13 or more for you to win the bet. Since it is believed that these are equally likely outcomes (hence actually a 50/50 bet), the odds are the same and most sportsbooks give you a 90% profit on investment (as opposed to 100% because they take 10% for themselves). Anyways, in the betting business it is said that if you bet the same amount on every game then you need to be correct 55% of the time to make a profit. Since a simple flip of a coin would grant you a 50% chance, it technically doesn’t seem to be all that hard to make money from this. However as simple as it might seem, it is widely acknowledged that no one can be consistently over 65% on these bets. In fact 60% is deemed as a very respectable percentage that would make you a good amount of pocket change: If you bet 10$ on each game, after 10 games on a 60% performance you would make: 6x (0.9x10)=54 would be your profit from the 6 wins, and you would lose 4x10=40 from the losses meaning 14$ net profit. If you bet 5000$ per game as most serious gamblers do and bet on 300 games over the season, then your profit would be 210,000$, not so bad!

Anyways so what I will do is post all these ‘handicap’ bets that I feel strongly in each night, and hopefully be able to go way over this 65% that pro’s deem as near impossible. I think that if I can achieve this then I can finally prove to the rest of the world my NBA ‘gift’. With that said, here’s my two picks for the night.

Day 1: (0-0-0)

Bet 1:
Game: Houston Rockets @ L.A Lakers

Pick: Houston -4.5

Reason: Houston is clearly one of the best teams in the league this year while the Lakers are a complete mess, even at full strength. Lamar Odom will not play, and Kobe Bryant doesn’t seem to be at 100% both physically or mentally. Houston should take this one comfortably.

Bet 2:
Game: Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

Pick: Golden State -0.5 in first quarter

Reason: Golden State always have ridiculous first quarters, and things should be no different for their season opener in front of their home fans and against a team they will want to get revenge over. It will take Utah some time to get into this game, and also into the season after last year’s surprising run in the playoffs.

Predictions for the whole night: (doesn’t count towards the official percentage, but I might keep a record of my performance in all games just for fun)
-Houston -4.5
-Golden State -3
-Portland -12.5

Working Yourself Back Into Regular Season Form

The NBA season is right around the corner and every sports fan with a hint of basketball in their blood is eager for the season to finally get underway. Over the past couple months we ‘witnessed’ a very dull NBA final, we had some big trades that went through and some that didn’t, we’ve had scandals, many comeback considerations, and much much more. However alll of that will clear the way on Wednesday night for the season openers and real basketball headlines. I don’t really mind NBA news being dominated by offcourt incidents during the offseason, especially as the alternative is no news at all, but it will be nice to finally see and talk some basketball which is the quite obviously the reason why all of us enjoy the NBA.

To tell you the truth, initially the excitement of the new NBA season didn’t come naturally to me. As I wrote about earlier, the regular season can be a very long and tedious process where if you analyze the season on a game-to-game basis, it will be very difficult to derive any meaning or purpose from any one game.

So it doesn’t just apply to the players and NBA staff when we say “work yourself back into ‘shape'”. For me, what got me back into regular season form was a combination of internet reading, media watching, and advertisement absorbing. So below I list my offseason regimen and training camp that has helped me cut that off-season fat, and gotten myself fully pumped and ready to go for the 2007-2008 regular season..

Working my way back

-NBA Previews: Any self respecting sports-reporting media outlet will have their annual season previews packed with exciting things to look forward to, predictions, and the latest developments since the end of last season. Even if you have shut basketball out of your life since a Cavs-Spurs Final had been decided, you will quickly be up-to-date on everything you need to know about. Furthermore, besides giving you the latest information it serves as a great hyping tool because there are always things to look forward to including how teams respond post-playoffs, new and exciting trades that have reshaped teams, and rookies that are sure to bring a whole new level of excitement to struggling franchises. Make sure you check out your favorite magazine/newspaper/website’s NBA season and/or team previews.

-New NBA ad campaign: The NBA has adopted a new advertising campaign this year with the slogan ‘Where Amazing Happens’. It is essentially a slide show of interesting NBA pictures that define what the league is about and conveys a powerful message when combined with the inspirational music and the slogan “Where … Happens”. They say a picture is worth a thousand words, but in this case that statement wouldn’t do the pictures justice because they communicate a feeling that words simply can not. This will surely send chills down the spine of any NBA fan. If you really are having doubts whether you want to invest ample of your time on watching basketball this season, your reaction to these ads will be the answer you’re looking for.

-2006-2007 All-Access NBA DVD: What better way to get ready for the upcoming season than to relive some of last season’s most memorable events with exclusive access to the stars, locker rooms, and every other aspect of the NBA that you just don’t get the opportunity to see everyday. While that last sentence sounded awfully like a sales pitch, watching this DVD instantly flicked on my game-face for the season. Seeing the work, tears, heart, and commitment these guys put in everyday just to be able to be out there in what I have previously called ‘meaningless regular season games’ is gut wrenching. A look into the less glamorous and more real side of the NBA, will be sure to make you appreciate more every ounce of NBA you consume.

-NBA Fantasy Games: If you think that NBA fantasy games are strictly for jocks, and the super-involved then you are mistaken. Not all games require you to have perfect knowledge of the NBA, enter a live draft, constantly make trades, and generally waste a lot of your time. Some salary cap games such as the one provided by http://www.sportingnews.com/ is easy, not time consuming, and extremely fun. Make sure you get a bunch of your friends, make small bets, engage in ‘friendly’ trashtalk and just have a good time. At best you get the chance to make fun of your friends, have a shot at the countless prizes on offer, and have bragging rights for the rest of the year. At worst, you have an emotional attachment to players, and have a genuine rush of excitement everytime you wake up and check out those box scores. There’s nothing like that feeling when that relatively unknown player on your team that your friends have ridiculed you about finally pulls through and fills up that boxscore like “The Godfather 4” would fill up the boxoffice.

-Betting: Once upon a time a very controversial issue, betting has now become acceptable in most parts of the world. Even David Stern himself overlooked the fact that everyone of his refs had broken a league rule not to gamble. In that regards, it might not seem terribly unethical to suggest that betting on NBA games is another source of fun that can motivate you towards the season. I have already announced that I will be taking on the role to beat the ‘market’ by announcing my bets and predictions, and a close following of the NBA is crucial if I am to have a shot. Also, it has been practically proven that having some money on the line when watching sports greatly increases the excitement level. The golden rule is to make sure you don’t bet any amount that will make you more unhappy than when you started in the event of a loss.

NBA works for You

There are many other methods to work yourself into the right zone to accommodate another marathon of a season back into your life. Some play 2008 versions of NBA branded video games, some follow the offseason and preseason religiously, some enter heated debates with others on what their thoughts are about the upcoming season, some blog, some commit by purchasing season tickets or satellite packages and others simply tune in randomly to a game one night and have all those feelings rushing back to them automatically. No matter what, if you love this game it will have a way of working you back into shape – that’s the beauty of being a spectator over a player. It’s FANtastic, its where amazing happens, it’s a game we love, its everything anything and nothing – it’s the NBA and it starts on October 30th at 8pm ET.

NBA China Games: Orlando Magic - Cleveland Cavaliers

The highly anticipated game between the Cavaliers and the Magic in Shanghai was due to start at 8pm in Qizhong Arena. I didn't have a ticket to the game, but this was China in the end so I thought the black market was as or even more reliable than any ticketing agency that I would have gone to. As expected, scalpers were in the hundreds (I kid you not), and after being ambushed by a large group of them 100 meters from the arena, I finally decided to buy a ticket. The 1000rmb ticket (130$) I was able to haggle down to 500rmb (65$) in a matter of seconds and even was even able to bring the scalper all the way to the entrance to check if the ticket was a fake. After avoiding the hectic promotional campaigns by the big multinational companies set up all around the stadium, I went ahead and found the way to my seat. It ended up being surprisingly above court level as a result of what I can only imagine to be bad stadium architecture (and of course bad ticket). As I sat down and looked around me, I saw a wide array of jerseys being worn by the young crowd ranging from USA national team ones to Cleveland throwback ones, to even a Ray Allen Boston jersey. I suspected them to be fakes as a real throwback costs more than what an average Chinese makes in a month, but regardless the young Chinese basketball fans came 'adequately' dressed. Anyways after a brief message from Dwight and Lebron to the fans, the game was ready to get underway. Didn't bring a pen/paper, so these are straight from memory.



FIRST HALF

-Damon Jones got the most love in the player introductions, after of course King James.

-Just before tipoff, Lebron and Damon had an interesting handshake sequence that ended up with them bowing to each other.

-Starting Lineups: Cavs- Damon Jones, Larry Hughes, LeBron James, Drew Gooden. Orlando- Jameer Nelson, JJ Redick, Keith Bogans, Hedo Turkoglu, Dwight Howard.

-First 5 possessions or so saw the Cavs go down low to Big Z. I'm pretty sure that's not what the Chinese spent their life savings to see.

-Orlando tried to go down low to Howard early on as well, but Z managed to block, smother, or bother most of his attempts in the first half.

-There was a lot of driving and dishing to the outside on Orlando's part, which is quite logical with a squad packed with shooters.

-Is it just me or does Keith Bogans move, play AND look awfully like Ray Allen.

-First timeout sees the Orlando 'dance team' come out, and immediately receives the highest crowd noise I've heard all night.

-JJ Redick's hesitating a lot on the threes. He needs to put that on automatic if he wants a shot at being good.

-Damon Jones keeps sticking his shoulder into Jameer Nelson to create space as he tries to run the offense - ala Gary Payton.

-Midway through the first quarter and Lebron gets his first proper touch on offense. The crowd starts cheering intensely, but Lebron disappoints with just a pass.

-In fact, in the first half LeBron was highly anti-climatic with barely any shot attempts and a mere couple of points stemming from dubious calls. I guess LeBron felt the pressure after numerous stories proclaiming what an icon he is in China.

-Second Timeout and again it's the Orlando dance team providing the entertainment again. I discuss with a friend whether the Magic actually brought their full dance team. Moments later, I witness each and everyone of them jumping on the trampoline and landing crazy dunks. The crowd is impressed, and so am I.

-First Quarter ends 23-20 in the Cavaliers' favor.

-Hedo Turkoglu has guarded everyone from Hughes, to Lebron, to Drew Gooden…I guess he's more versatile than he seems.

-Shannon Brown checks in and wastes no time lighting it up. After consecutive tough step-back fadeaway jumpers he holds his follow through and has the 'who's the man!' face on. Too bad it's a preseason game in Shanghai and not the NBA finals huh.

-Some fat Orlando center performs what would have to be called a skyhook. I find out soon later its none other than Adonal Foyle.

-Jameer Nelson is particularly good at going straight through double teams, he's done it about 8 times already. Perhaps Damon Jones and Ira Newble aren't the best defenders..that might be it

-Damon Jones checks out to be replaced by another notorious PG; Devin Brown. I'd say he's 50 pounds overweight..and that's just to be a small forward..

-First half ends 46-42 in favour of the Cavs. Truth be told they've kept the Magic at arm's length the whole half and look in total control.



SECOND HALF

-Same starting lineups begin the second half .

-LeBron wastes no time making up for his horrible performance in the first half. In a span of a minute he catches an alley hoop and throws it down..finally giving the crowd something basketball related to scream about, soon followed by a spin move in traffic with a finesse double clutch layup with the left hand. And One. Crowd is going nuts like one of those Bruce Lee scenes where he screams for no apparent reason.

-Speaking of Bruce Lee, we see his successor Jet Li on the large screen. He receives a standing ovation to my surprise. His two little kids with him have those SARS masks on their face. I guess they didn't hear Drew Gooden's neckhair virus had been exterminated.

-Jameer Nelson's got game. Well you gotta have some game to relegate Arroyo to the bench, but this kid could get some All-Star consideration in the near future.

-Dwight Howard, having been locked down by Z most of the night and been forced to settle for 15 footers, finally decides its time to step up. His athleticism ends up being too much for Z and the Cavalier reserve big man to handle. He ends up with game highs of 31 points and 14 rebounds.

-The Cleveland reserve big men that I mentioned above is what I now find out to be A.Tulliver. He has no nba.com player profile page so I can't really shed anymore light on him. But I think its safe to say that Cleveland must re-sign Anderson Varejao.

-Orlando is struggling to create any offense without Grant Hill. I hate to say this but Rashard Lewis is exactly the player they needed and actually probably deserved that max contract.

-Global Brands are all over this game, making sure the Chinese know their brand through timeout entertainment in the form of mini basketball games. What I remember from it is having to watch 10 successive airballs from beyond the arc in an Adidas sponsored hotspots contest.

-LeBron checks out towards the end of the 3rd with 17points. We won't see anymore of him tonight.

-End of 3rd: Cleveland 72-64 Orlando

-I don't want to bring up timeout entertainment again, but it really has been the most enjoyable part for the Chinese audience in attendance. In fact the loudest cheers of the night comes when free t-shirts are catapulted out towards the crowd. You wouldn't think T-shirts made by the Chinese themselves wouldn't get these people so excited..but I guess everyone loves free stuff.

-Beginning of the fourth it seems like Cleveland is going to run away with this one.

-The Orlando dance team is high up in the stands now giving out fliers with a picture of the whole team on it. Why these ladies want a billion Chinese men with half naked photos of them, is beyond me. However it sure is working. Everyone is going to take pictures with these cheerleaders and even autographs. I'm actually worried for their safety as they are just by themselves. The cheerleader that I see on my row is none other than the same cheerleader I voted to get in the All-Star cheerleader squad 8 months ago. (Well I don't get the privilege of voting for MVP, so I get my voting fix where I can!) I'm tempted to go up to her and tell her this sad fact, but I decide I rather not look even more pathetic than the swarm of Chinese guys around her.

-Meanwhile, most of the crowd (including me) has missed Orlando's comeback.

-Cleveland is playing exclusively with their bench while Orlando's playing at full strength (minus Rashard Lewis).

-Lots of lead changes towards the end but baskets down the stretch by Nelson and Turkoglu give the Magic a 4 point lead with less than a minute to go. LeBron aka the Little Emperor stays on the bench seemingly content on biting his nails.

-About half of the 13,000 or so in attendance has already left hoping to avoid the mass crowd of people waiting for the bus and the crazy traffic that will ensue.

-Last second attempts by Marshall, Newble, Tolliver, Devin and Shannon Brown are futile as expected.

-Final Score: Orlando 90 – 86 Cleveland. Mike Brown had a chance to give the crowd their money's worth and practice some crucial end game plays – but instead he decided go for players who will never see the light of crunch time again in the foreseeable future.

-These teams meet again in Macao (Las Vegas of China) in a couple of days, and I personally would rather spend my money on the Blackjack table than watch two mediocre Eastern Conference teams' benches go at it.
-Orlando barely managed to beat the Cleveland bench and truth be told I don't see them making the playoffs this year unless Rashard Lewis plays like an MVP. Cleveland on the other hand are really weak at the Point and Center positions even with Gibson and Varejao back. LeBron will need some sustained heroics to get past the first round this time around.

Mission Statement

I must say, every year I find myself making some great predictions concerning the NBA. I predicted last season that the Golden State Warriors would beat Dallas in the first round way back in March (what many people deemed as the biggest upset in American sports history). While this makes me feel good inside, it doesn’t mean much without a profit to show for it or some praise to satisfy my over bloated NBA pride. What really frustrates me is reading excerpts from articles and news reports the following line “Who would have guessed that …… would happen…”. I usually end up shouting at my screen like a maniac: “I DID!!….I @!#%& SWEAR I DID!!”. I also tell my friends the same thing, but they end up giving me the same reaction my PC screen does.

Well no more. I’ve decided to step up and do something rather than sulk like Shawn Marion. I have decided to get into the betting game to demonstrate once and for all that I know more than the average NBA fan/bettor. Notice I didn’t say I can beat the House..because everyone knows such claims are associated with degenerate gambleholics. Instead I will compete against other ‘civilians’ like me on Betfair.com where there is no ‘House’, odds are determined amongst people. Since money is the only language that really convinces people these days, I will post my picks everyday and keep track of how much I have won …or lost.

Feel free to jump on the bandwagon and make yourself a fortune, or just sit back and admire my unearthly ability to predict outcomes. Either way, by season’s end, no one will be able to look at me with a blank face when I tell them stories of my NBA conquest…not even my computer screen!

So that’s the direction this blog is taking. Perhaps I’ll post a random article here and there, but the blog will now focus mainly on this betting mission. I think I’ll have a couple of sentences for each pick to explain my reasons.

Having said I leave you with my predictions for the top 8 teams of the regular season for each conference.

West
1. Phoenix
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. Houston
5. Golden State
6. Denver
7. Utah
8. Los Angeles Lakers

East
1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Boston
4. Miami
5. Washington
6. Toronto
7. New Jersey
8. Cleveland

Regular Season MVP: Kevin Garnett
2008 Champs: Phoenix Suns over the Boston Celtics in 6