Game Day 1

So the NBA season is starting tonight, and that of course means that my betting mission will also finally see the light of day. I’ve thought about how I can present the information and I have decided that the percentage of correct ‘guesses’ on handicap bets (50/50 bets) are the best way to measure my skill.

For those not familiar with betting, here’s a quick rundown. Vegas decides to put a ‘line’ somewhere giving a team a starting ‘handicap’ of a couple of points. Essentially this is what they think the game will result in. So for tonight’s game between San Antonio and Portland, they have chosen to give Portland a 12.5 point starting lead (expressed as Portland +12.5). Otherwise you can choose to side with San Antonio -12.5 which would mean San Antonio would have to win by 13 or more for you to win the bet. Since it is believed that these are equally likely outcomes (hence actually a 50/50 bet), the odds are the same and most sportsbooks give you a 90% profit on investment (as opposed to 100% because they take 10% for themselves). Anyways, in the betting business it is said that if you bet the same amount on every game then you need to be correct 55% of the time to make a profit. Since a simple flip of a coin would grant you a 50% chance, it technically doesn’t seem to be all that hard to make money from this. However as simple as it might seem, it is widely acknowledged that no one can be consistently over 65% on these bets. In fact 60% is deemed as a very respectable percentage that would make you a good amount of pocket change: If you bet 10$ on each game, after 10 games on a 60% performance you would make: 6x (0.9x10)=54 would be your profit from the 6 wins, and you would lose 4x10=40 from the losses meaning 14$ net profit. If you bet 5000$ per game as most serious gamblers do and bet on 300 games over the season, then your profit would be 210,000$, not so bad!

Anyways so what I will do is post all these ‘handicap’ bets that I feel strongly in each night, and hopefully be able to go way over this 65% that pro’s deem as near impossible. I think that if I can achieve this then I can finally prove to the rest of the world my NBA ‘gift’. With that said, here’s my two picks for the night.

Day 1: (0-0-0)

Bet 1:
Game: Houston Rockets @ L.A Lakers

Pick: Houston -4.5

Reason: Houston is clearly one of the best teams in the league this year while the Lakers are a complete mess, even at full strength. Lamar Odom will not play, and Kobe Bryant doesn’t seem to be at 100% both physically or mentally. Houston should take this one comfortably.

Bet 2:
Game: Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

Pick: Golden State -0.5 in first quarter

Reason: Golden State always have ridiculous first quarters, and things should be no different for their season opener in front of their home fans and against a team they will want to get revenge over. It will take Utah some time to get into this game, and also into the season after last year’s surprising run in the playoffs.

Predictions for the whole night: (doesn’t count towards the official percentage, but I might keep a record of my performance in all games just for fun)
-Houston -4.5
-Golden State -3
-Portland -12.5